Saturday, June 13, 2015

Why I am short $VIXM Mid-Term Volatility ETF

I don’t think many people follow this one, so I will be brief.  I am short the Proshares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF, ticket symbol $VIXM.  Per Proshares, this Fund is designed to track the VIX: 
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) is a widely followed measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500. Since the VIX is not directly investable, S&P 500 volatility exposure is often achieved through VIX futures. Each of the VIX futures indexes measures the movements of a combination of VIX futures and is designed to track changes in the expectation for VIX over a specific time window in the future. As a result, the S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures Index and VIXM can be expected to perform differently than the VIX.
As with the other funds I am short, this ETF tends to go down over time due to contango issues.  If you are not familiar with contango, I’ll discuss it more later, or you can find a lot of information on the web about it.

Because it tracks the mid-term VIX futures, which are out 4-6 months, this fund  is not as volatile as the $VXX, which tracks the short term VIX, or $UVXY, which is 2X the $VXX.   

If you look at the performance of the $VIXM, it is down 14.54% year to date.  I am short it, because I think this will continue.  Why not?  What’s changed?  Why swim against the tide?  Like all investments, it is subject to short term fluctuations, so I intend to hold the short it for as long as I can. 

It is based on the same index as the $VXZ, which is a more popular fund, but I couldn’t borrow any shares of that to short.  Even with $VIXM, I couldn’t get as many as I wanted, so my position is pretty small compared to the other funds on this list.  

And just to be clear, being short it means I make money when it goes down.  Generally, the this works inversely to the market.  On a daily basis, if the $SPY goes up, this will go down.  It is not a perfect relationship, though. 

No change to my positions, here is how they ended the week.  Friday was down, as the overall market was down a lot.  My positions weren't hurt too bad, primarily because of NUGT and FXP 

Close Initial Short Gain (Loss) Percent
NUGT                   9.37                         10.47                  1.10 10.5%
BIS                 29.85                         29.75                (0.10) -0.3%
TZA                   9.52                           9.90                  0.38 3.8%
VIXM                 53.87                         54.60                  0.73 1.3%
RUSS                 34.19                         30.40                (3.79) -12.5%
CORN                 22.77                         22.68                (0.09) -0.4%
FAZ                 10.99                         11.45                  0.46 4.0%
UVXY                 37.15                         40.68                  3.53 8.7%
FXP                 27.76                         27.58                (0.18) -0.7%
XIV                 46.70                         46.56                (0.14) -0.3%

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