Thursday, January 11, 2018

Update to the ETF Leveraged Short List for January 11

The stock market has really been on a roll, and the performance of the ETF Short List has been flying along with it.  A remarkable jump of 3.7% for the first seven trading days on 2018 in the SP 500 has resulted in a gain of 8.47% for this list. Awesome.

One thing I am really happy about is the performance of the Junior Miners pair, where I own both the Bull and Bear ETF.  Very volatile, and as such, I am up 1% in a week with very little risk.  There is a great deal more risk playing just the Bull side, but no complaints in this market.

See the results below:

stocks 2018
12/31/2017 1000 each Shares 1/11/2018 Value
FAZ financials 11.69 -1000 -85.5432 10.9 -932.42
TZA Small Cap 12.27 -1000 -81.49959 11.12 -906.28
SPXS SP 500 29.96 -1000 -33.37784 27.09 -904.21
SOXS Semiconductors 16.5 -1000 -60.60606 14.19 -860.00
SQQQ Large Cap Tech 21.51 -1000 -46.49 18.64 -866.57
YANG China 5.93 -1000 -168.6341 4.93 -831.37
JDST Junior miners Bear 51.31 -1000 -19.48938 51.52 -1004.09
JNUG Junior Miners Bull 17.76 -1000 -56.30631 17.34 -976.35
VXX Volatility short term 27.92 -1000 -35.81662 25.84 -925.50
VXZ Volatility mid term 17.5 -1000 -57.14286 16.55 -945.71
-10000 -9152.50
Cash at start 10000 10000.00
Profit 0 847.50
Percent 8.47%

Thursday, January 4, 2018

2018 Update on the Leveraged Short List

The first three days of 2018 were a great time to be a stock market bull.  Almost everything went up, and the ETFs in the Short List went up more than anything.  Not really a fair test, because things will change, and there will be some down days.  I don't know when, but I hope to be ready for them.  A good start sure helps.

stocks 2018
12/31/2017 1000 each Shares 1/4/2018 Value
FAZ financials 11.69 -1000 -85.5432 11.44 -978.614
TZA Small Cap 12.27 -1000 -81.49959 11.77 -959.25
SPXS SP 500 29.96 -1000 -33.37784 28.39 -947.597
SOXS Semiconductors 16.5 -1000 -60.60606 14.13 -856.364
SQQQ Large Cap Tech 21.51 -1000 -46.49 19.58 -910.274
YANG China 5.93 -1000 -168.6341 5.11 -861.72
JDST Junior miners Bear 51.31 -1000 -19.48938 48.5 -945.235
JNUG Junior Miners Bull 17.76 -1000 -56.30631 18.54 -1043.92
VXX Volatility short term 27.92 -1000 -35.81662 26.25 -940.186
VXZ Volatility mid term 17.5 -1000 -57.14286 17.04 -973.714
-10000 -9416.87
Cash at start 10000 10000
Profit 0 583.1265
Percent 5.83%

Saturday, December 30, 2017

2018 Short LIst - Leveraged ETFs to short

This year, I will pick my investments for 2018. I have positions in most of these going into the year. 
These are all short positions on leveraged ETFs.  Shorts make money when they decline in price, and leveraged ETFs are built to fail due to daily rebalancing.  I have chosen these because they are available to short at various times, or you can buy put options on them (put options do have negatives, they are timed, and decline in value as they as approach expiration).
The list
TZASmall Cap
SQQQLarge Cap Tech
JDSTJunior miners Bear
JNUGJunior Miners Bull
VXXVolatility short term
VXZVolatility mid term
The first 8 are 3x leverage.  The first 6 are based on equities and are all bear funds.  The two Miners are more volatile, and though on a daily basis they offset, over time they may both decline.
The last two are technically ETNs, very dangerous but potentially very lucrative.
I'll track these for the year.

Friday, February 24, 2017

Cleaning up Weekly Positions

Not a great week, but survived to try again.  Closed out three positions, buying back a put spread in $AAPL for a profit and a call spread in $TSLA for a profit.

I also closed out my call spread in $UVXY for a fairly significant loss.  UVXY took off on the morning while I was short calls and I decided to cover them before things got worse.  That didn't work out because the market turned back up (damn dip buyers) and I left a fair amount of money on the table. 

Annoying, but those choices sometimes have to be made in order to protect the account. 

I put on two new trades today, both times selling put spreads on big, volatile and liquid names.

On $CMG sold next week's  $415 strike and bought the $395 for the same time period.  About a $3.40 credit for that.

Same kind of trade on $TSLA, sold next week's 255, bought the $237.50 for a $3.50 credit.  Risky, but both stocks severely dipped at the open today and recovered as the day went along.

I'm considering maybe taking a earlier profit (if I have one) rather than waiting until expiration.  Sean McLaughlin takes his when he hits 50%, but that seems like too little to me. 

Happy trading.

Thursday, February 23, 2017

A Tesla Bearish Option Spread and an Update on $UVXY

I was a bit reckless with my option trades today, and surprisingly, I didn't get burned.  I may actually make some money on it. It will probably come back to haunt me.

I sold a call spread on Tesla ($TSLA) with a one day expiration.  The stock came out with earnings last night, and although the stock initially went up, it faded quickly and was down by 10 am or so, when I put this on. 

The stock had dropped from $280 last night down to $260, so I sold a put spread:

Sold the $262.50 for $2.24 for expiration tomorrow.
Bought the $272.50 for $0.55 for the same date. 

If the stock stays below I get the entire spread.  Short duration, but there was still a fair amount of implied volatility, so a decent return. 

Stock dropped to $256 by the close, so I could have taken it off for a solid win, but will hold for a bit tomorrow.  If it stays near that price I will let it expire worthless. 

An update on $UVXY.  If you haven't tried this strategy, one thing that can happen when you sell a call or put is that they can be exercised early.  That happened to me today, the $19 call I sold was bought back, locking in my losses.  Bad. However, $UVXY continued going up, so the exercise stopped me from taking larger losses.  Good!

The $21 call trade I sold isn't looking great either.  The stock closed near $22, and the option expires tomorrow.  I need a solid fade to make any money, and I'm not confident about it. 

That's the risk of doing this.  A few bad trades can really blow up your account.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

A Bullish Option Spread on $AAPL

I have a long term put option on Apple, but since I have been watching it closely, I saw that it had been upgraded this morning.  The stock seemed to be steady, so I thought it might be good to put on a very short term bullish spread on.  I had some cash available from my winning $YELP spread that expired on Friday.

I sold a put spread (which is bullish).

Sold the $135 weekly put for this Friday for 40 cents
Bought the $132 strike weekly put also for this Friday for 9 cents.  The underlying stock was trading around $136.20 at the time.

If this works, that is, if $AAPL stays over $135 through close on Friday, I'll pick up the whole 31 cents (that is, $31 per option.)  The stock closed at $136.69, and I am already in the black. 

It's probably not smart to trade such short duration, I don't really have much chance of picking up much of the implied volatility, but it's a straight directional bet that the stock won't go down, or go down very much in a short time frame.

I'd like to update my position on the trades I made last week.  I have two bullish bets on $UVXY, short a $19 call and a $21 call.  The $21 looks OK, $UVXY closed at $20.69, that would pay off if it stays here.  The $19 is losing at this point, but $UVXY can fall quickly, so I will hang on to it for a few days.  Of course, it can also spike, but I have offsetting long calls at higher prices to give me some comfort.

Enjoy trading.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Winning trade in $YELP

Just a quick note to say I allowed the call spread I had on $YELP to expire.  I had sold the 36.50 strike call and the stock closed at $34.67, a nice win for me.

No other trades today.