Wednesday, January 24, 2018

A Down Day in the Market

Finally, a down day in the market.  Actually, not even down that much, some bigger weakness in the NASDAQ and the Vix climbed quite a bit, although it tailed off later in the day.

I'm not posting my results, but it's easy to calculate, and I will post them in a day or two, but I am sure I am down a bit just because of the VXX.  It doesn't matter since I want this to be something I hold for a long time.  I would do all year, but I am not sure what's going to happen it things go really well.  I'll update that thought later.

For now, let's talk about volatility.  The greater than volatility, the more these leveraged ETFs lose money.  Yes, as Bear ETFs mostly, I stand to make more money if the market goes straight up.  But since that isn't likely to happen, an increase in volatility (with an overall trend up) is going to help me beat the overall market.

Stay tuned.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

14 Percent Gain So Far in 2018

12/31/2017 1000 each Shares 1/23/2018 Value
FAZ financials 11.69 -1000 -85.5432 10.03 -858.00
TZA Small Cap 12.27 -1000 -81.49959 10.6 -863.90
SPXS SP 500 29.96 -1000 -33.37784 25.09 -837.45
SOXS Semiconductors 16.5 -1000 -60.60606 11.88 -720.00
SQQQ Large Cap Tech 21.51 -1000 -46.49 16.65 -774.06
YANG China 5.93 -1000 -168.6341 3.85 -649.24
JDST Junior miners Bear 51.31 -1000 -19.48938 46.38 -903.92
JNUG Junior Miners Bull 17.76 -1000 -56.30631 18.86 -1061.94
VXX Volatility short term 27.92 -1000 -35.81662 26.69 -955.95
VXZ Volatility mid term 17.5 -1000 -57.14286 16.96 -969.14
-10000 -8593.59
Cash at start 10000 10000.00
Profit 0 1406.41
Percent 14.06%

The market continues to roar forward, all time highs again, so a bullish strategy is going to work pretty much regardless.  Still, 14% gain is pretty good, the $SPY is around 6%. Surprising that the Vix products are actually underperforming.  

So far, so good.  I am actually waiting for a bad day to pick apart the strategy.  If there is ever one. 

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Leveraged Short List dated January 18

Another good week, market was strong, even with a few down days.  SQQQ and SOXS were down a lot, but volatility was up.  That's a bit strange, but strange things do happen over short time periods.  Note JDST and JNUG again this week, both are down since the beginning of the year.  A very good situation for a short fund. 


stocks 2018
12/31/2017 1000 each Shares 1/18/2018 Value
FAZ financials 11.69 -1000 -85.5432 10.59 -905.90
TZA Small Cap 12.27 -1000 -81.49959 11.31 -921.76
SPXS SP 500 29.96 -1000 -33.37784 26.2 -874.50
SOXS Semiconductors 16.5 -1000 -60.60606 12.46 -755.15
SQQQ Large Cap Tech 21.51 -1000 -46.49 17.79 -827.06
YANG China 5.93 -1000 -168.6341 4.32 -728.50
JDST Junior miners Bear 51.31 -1000 -19.48938 49.56 -965.89
JNUG Junior Miners Bull 17.76 -1000 -56.30631 17.72 -997.75
VXX Volatility short term 27.92 -1000 -35.81662 26.96 -965.62
VXZ Volatility mid term 17.5 -1000 -57.14286 16.91 -966.29
-10000 -8908.41
Cash at start 10000 10000.00
Profit 0 1091.59
Percent 10.92%

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Update to the ETF Leveraged Short List for January 11

The stock market has really been on a roll, and the performance of the ETF Short List has been flying along with it.  A remarkable jump of 3.7% for the first seven trading days on 2018 in the SP 500 has resulted in a gain of 8.47% for this list. Awesome.

One thing I am really happy about is the performance of the Junior Miners pair, where I own both the Bull and Bear ETF.  Very volatile, and as such, I am up 1% in a week with very little risk.  There is a great deal more risk playing just the Bull side, but no complaints in this market.

See the results below:

stocks 2018
12/31/2017 1000 each Shares 1/11/2018 Value
FAZ financials 11.69 -1000 -85.5432 10.9 -932.42
TZA Small Cap 12.27 -1000 -81.49959 11.12 -906.28
SPXS SP 500 29.96 -1000 -33.37784 27.09 -904.21
SOXS Semiconductors 16.5 -1000 -60.60606 14.19 -860.00
SQQQ Large Cap Tech 21.51 -1000 -46.49 18.64 -866.57
YANG China 5.93 -1000 -168.6341 4.93 -831.37
JDST Junior miners Bear 51.31 -1000 -19.48938 51.52 -1004.09
JNUG Junior Miners Bull 17.76 -1000 -56.30631 17.34 -976.35
VXX Volatility short term 27.92 -1000 -35.81662 25.84 -925.50
VXZ Volatility mid term 17.5 -1000 -57.14286 16.55 -945.71
-10000 -9152.50
Cash at start 10000 10000.00
Profit 0 847.50
Percent 8.47%

Thursday, January 4, 2018

2018 Update on the Leveraged Short List

The first three days of 2018 were a great time to be a stock market bull.  Almost everything went up, and the ETFs in the Short List went up more than anything.  Not really a fair test, because things will change, and there will be some down days.  I don't know when, but I hope to be ready for them.  A good start sure helps.



stocks 2018
12/31/2017 1000 each Shares 1/4/2018 Value
FAZ financials 11.69 -1000 -85.5432 11.44 -978.614
TZA Small Cap 12.27 -1000 -81.49959 11.77 -959.25
SPXS SP 500 29.96 -1000 -33.37784 28.39 -947.597
SOXS Semiconductors 16.5 -1000 -60.60606 14.13 -856.364
SQQQ Large Cap Tech 21.51 -1000 -46.49 19.58 -910.274
YANG China 5.93 -1000 -168.6341 5.11 -861.72
JDST Junior miners Bear 51.31 -1000 -19.48938 48.5 -945.235
JNUG Junior Miners Bull 17.76 -1000 -56.30631 18.54 -1043.92
VXX Volatility short term 27.92 -1000 -35.81662 26.25 -940.186
VXZ Volatility mid term 17.5 -1000 -57.14286 17.04 -973.714
-10000 -9416.87
Cash at start 10000 10000
Profit 0 583.1265
Percent 5.83%

Saturday, December 30, 2017

2018 Short LIst - Leveraged ETFs to short

This year, I will pick my investments for 2018. I have positions in most of these going into the year. 
 
These are all short positions on leveraged ETFs.  Shorts make money when they decline in price, and leveraged ETFs are built to fail due to daily rebalancing.  I have chosen these because they are available to short at various times, or you can buy put options on them (put options do have negatives, they are timed, and decline in value as they as approach expiration).
 
The list
 
 
FAZfinancials
TZASmall Cap
SPXSSP 500
SOXSSemiconductors
SQQQLarge Cap Tech
YANGChina
JDSTJunior miners Bear
JNUGJunior Miners Bull
VXXVolatility short term
VXZVolatility mid term
 
The first 8 are 3x leverage.  The first 6 are based on equities and are all bear funds.  The two Miners are more volatile, and though on a daily basis they offset, over time they may both decline.
 
The last two are technically ETNs, very dangerous but potentially very lucrative.
 
I'll track these for the year.
 

Friday, February 24, 2017

Cleaning up Weekly Positions

Not a great week, but survived to try again.  Closed out three positions, buying back a put spread in $AAPL for a profit and a call spread in $TSLA for a profit.

I also closed out my call spread in $UVXY for a fairly significant loss.  UVXY took off on the morning while I was short calls and I decided to cover them before things got worse.  That didn't work out because the market turned back up (damn dip buyers) and I left a fair amount of money on the table. 

Annoying, but those choices sometimes have to be made in order to protect the account. 

I put on two new trades today, both times selling put spreads on big, volatile and liquid names.

On $CMG sold next week's  $415 strike and bought the $395 for the same time period.  About a $3.40 credit for that.

Same kind of trade on $TSLA, sold next week's 255, bought the $237.50 for a $3.50 credit.  Risky, but both stocks severely dipped at the open today and recovered as the day went along.

I'm considering maybe taking a earlier profit (if I have one) rather than waiting until expiration.  Sean McLaughlin takes his when he hits 50%, but that seems like too little to me. 

Happy trading.