Tuesday, June 2, 2015

Why I am short $RUSS

$RUSS is the Direxion Russia Bear 3x ETF.  It trades on a daily basis as the opposite of $RUSL (the bull 3x ETF).  $RUSL is designed to move at 300% of the Russia stock market in the form of the $RSX ETF.

As I mentioned before on $FAZ and $TZA, this works on a daily basis, and not over an extended time.  I shorted $RUSS a few days ago at $30.40 (in US dollars of course) not because I have any idea about the Russian economy or stock market, but because these 3x ETFs are designed to fail over time.   It’s not just an opinion, it’s the way they are built. 

It doesn’t mean they can’t go up for a while, so a longer term horizon is beneficial.  Looking back at 2015 year to date:

$RSX is up 34.65%
$RUSL is  up 92.81%
$RUSS is down 73.4%

It’s not that $RUSL isn’t a good candidate for a short after this giant gain, I just think $RUSS is still better.  If you recall, last year there were big concerns after the Russian annexation of the Crimea, and a resulting plunge in their stock market.  It has made a nice comeback this year, hence, the big drop in $RUSS.

$RUSS is pretty volatile, which makes for more decay in these ETFs.  The ETF has moved more than 12% up and down in a few days. More on decay in another post.

Updated quotes and my initial position below.  You may note that I added a new position, $FXP.  More on that another day.

Close Initial Short Gain (Losss)
NUGT                 11.38                         10.47                (0.91)
BIS                 29.95                         29.75                (0.20)
TZA                   9.88                           9.90                  0.02
VIXM                 54.69                         54.60                (0.09)
RUSS                 29.94                         30.40                  0.46
CORN                 23.05                         22.68                (0.37)
FAZ                 11.48                         11.45                (0.03)
UVXY                 40.98                         40.68                (0.30)
FXP                 27.61                         27.58                (0.03)

In case you wondering, this isn’t advice or an offer to purchase anything.  Just what I am doing.  

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