Leveraged Update February 23

I haven't posted in a while, I wanted to let this run without thinking about it, especially considering the big drop and increased volatility in the stock market. 

WOW.  As of this date I am just about doubling the return on the SPY.  What's incredible is that the two VIX related products have exploded (I hold all these short) and really pounded my returns.  But the other ETFs I hold short have offset that the VXX.  Possibly the increase in volatility has helped them, that's how I think it's supposed to work.  This is supposed to be a six month strategy, so no change as of now.

Here is where I am:

		Price on			Price on
		12/31/2017	Beg Short	Shares	2/23/2018	End Value
FAZ	financials	11.69	-1000	(85.54)	10.53	-900.77
TZA	Small Cap	12.27	-1000	(81.50)	11.68	-951.92
SPXS	SP 500	29.96	-1000	(33.38)	26.81	-894.86
SOXS	Semiconductors	16.5	-1000	(60.61)	12.11	-733.94
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech	21.51	-1000	(46.49)	16.46	-765.23
YANG	China	5.93	-1000	(168.63)	4.41	-743.68
JDST	Junior miners Bear	51.31	-1000	(19.49)	57.49	-1120.44
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull	17.76	-1000	(56.31)	13.62	-766.89
VXX	Volatility short term	27.92	-1000	(35.82)	40.41	-1447.35
VXZ	Volatility mid term	17.5	-1000	(57.14)	19.82	-1132.57
			-10000			-9457.64
Cash at start			10000			10000.00
Profit			0			542.36
Percent						5.42%
SPY		266.86			274.71	2.94%

A Down Day in the Market

Finally, a down day in the market.  Actually, not even down that much, some bigger weakness in the NASDAQ and the Vix climbed quite a bit, although it tailed off later in the day.

I'm not posting my results, but it's easy to calculate, and I will post them in a day or two, but I am sure I am down a bit just because of the VXX.  It doesn't matter since I want this to be something I hold for a long time.  I would do all year, but I am not sure what's going to happen it things go really well.  I'll update that thought later.

For now, let's talk about volatility.  The greater than volatility, the more these leveraged ETFs lose money.  Yes, as Bear ETFs mostly, I stand to make more money if the market goes straight up.  But since that isn't likely to happen, an increase in volatility (with an overall trend up) is going to help me beat the overall market.

Stay tuned.

14 Percent Gain So Far in 2018

		12/31/2017	1000 each	Shares	1/23/2018	Value
FAZ	financials	11.69	-1000	-85.5432	10.03	-858.00
TZA	Small Cap	12.27	-1000	-81.49959	10.6	-863.90
SPXS	SP 500	29.96	-1000	-33.37784	25.09	-837.45
SOXS	Semiconductors	16.5	-1000	-60.60606	11.88	-720.00
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech	21.51	-1000	-46.49	16.65	-774.06
YANG	China	5.93	-1000	-168.6341	3.85	-649.24
JDST	Junior miners Bear	51.31	-1000	-19.48938	46.38	-903.92
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull	17.76	-1000	-56.30631	18.86	-1061.94
VXX	Volatility short term	27.92	-1000	-35.81662	26.69	-955.95
VXZ	Volatility mid term	17.5	-1000	-57.14286	16.96	-969.14
			-10000			-8593.59
Cash at start			10000			10000.00
Profit			0			1406.41
Percent						14.06%

The market continues to roar forward, all time highs again, so a bullish strategy is going to work pretty much regardless.  Still, 14% gain is pretty good, the $SPY is around 6%. Surprising that the Vix products are actually underperforming.  

So far, so good.  I am actually waiting for a bad day to pick apart the strategy.  If there is ever one. 

Leveraged Short List dated January 18

Another good week, market was strong, even with a few down days.  SQQQ and SOXS were down a lot, but volatility was up.  That's a bit strange, but strange things do happen over short time periods.  Note JDST and JNUG again this week, both are down since the beginning of the year.  A very good situation for a short fund. 

stocks 2018
		12/31/2017	1000 each	Shares	1/18/2018	Value
FAZ	financials	11.69	-1000	-85.5432	10.59	-905.90
TZA	Small Cap	12.27	-1000	-81.49959	11.31	-921.76
SPXS	SP 500	29.96	-1000	-33.37784	26.2	-874.50
SOXS	Semiconductors	16.5	-1000	-60.60606	12.46	-755.15
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech	21.51	-1000	-46.49	17.79	-827.06
YANG	China	5.93	-1000	-168.6341	4.32	-728.50
JDST	Junior miners Bear	51.31	-1000	-19.48938	49.56	-965.89
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull	17.76	-1000	-56.30631	17.72	-997.75
VXX	Volatility short term	27.92	-1000	-35.81662	26.96	-965.62
VXZ	Volatility mid term	17.5	-1000	-57.14286	16.91	-966.29
			-10000			-8908.41
Cash at start			10000			10000.00
Profit			0			1091.59
Percent						10.92%

Update to the ETF Leveraged Short List for January 11

The stock market has really been on a roll, and the performance of the ETF Short List has been flying along with it.  A remarkable jump of 3.7% for the first seven trading days on 2018 in the SP 500 has resulted in a gain of 8.47% for this list. Awesome.

One thing I am really happy about is the performance of the Junior Miners pair, where I own both the Bull and Bear ETF.  Very volatile, and as such, I am up 1% in a week with very little risk.  There is a great deal more risk playing just the Bull side, but no complaints in this market.

See the results below:

stocks 2018
		12/31/2017	1000 each	Shares	1/11/2018	Value
FAZ	financials	11.69	-1000	-85.5432	10.9	-932.42
TZA	Small Cap	12.27	-1000	-81.49959	11.12	-906.28
SPXS	SP 500	29.96	-1000	-33.37784	27.09	-904.21
SOXS	Semiconductors	16.5	-1000	-60.60606	14.19	-860.00
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech	21.51	-1000	-46.49	18.64	-866.57
YANG	China	5.93	-1000	-168.6341	4.93	-831.37
JDST	Junior miners Bear	51.31	-1000	-19.48938	51.52	-1004.09
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull	17.76	-1000	-56.30631	17.34	-976.35
VXX	Volatility short term	27.92	-1000	-35.81662	25.84	-925.50
VXZ	Volatility mid term	17.5	-1000	-57.14286	16.55	-945.71
			-10000			-9152.50
Cash at start			10000			10000.00
Profit			0			847.50
Percent						8.47%

2018 Update on the Leveraged Short List

The first three days of 2018 were a great time to be a stock market bull.  Almost everything went up, and the ETFs in the Short List went up more than anything.  Not really a fair test, because things will change, and there will be some down days.  I don't know when, but I hope to be ready for them.  A good start sure helps.

stocks 2018
		12/31/2017	1000 each	Shares	1/4/2018	Value
FAZ	financials	11.69	-1000	-85.5432	11.44	-978.614
TZA	Small Cap	12.27	-1000	-81.49959	11.77	-959.25
SPXS	SP 500	29.96	-1000	-33.37784	28.39	-947.597
SOXS	Semiconductors	16.5	-1000	-60.60606	14.13	-856.364
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech	21.51	-1000	-46.49	19.58	-910.274
YANG	China	5.93	-1000	-168.6341	5.11	-861.72
JDST	Junior miners Bear	51.31	-1000	-19.48938	48.5	-945.235
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull	17.76	-1000	-56.30631	18.54	-1043.92
VXX	Volatility short term	27.92	-1000	-35.81662	26.25	-940.186
VXZ	Volatility mid term	17.5	-1000	-57.14286	17.04	-973.714
			-10000			-9416.87
Cash at start			10000			10000
Profit			0			583.1265
Percent						5.83%

2018 Short LIst - Leveraged ETFs to short

This year, I will pick my investments for 2018. I have positions in most of these going into the year. 

 

These are all short positions on leveraged ETFs.  Shorts make money when they decline in price, and leveraged ETFs are built to fail due to daily rebalancing.  I have chosen these because they are available to short at various times, or you can buy put options on them (put options do have negatives, they are timed, and decline in value as they as approach expiration).

 

The list

 

 

FAZ	financials
TZA	Small Cap
SPXS	SP 500
SOXS	Semiconductors
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech
YANG	China
JDST	Junior miners Bear
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull
VXX	Volatility short term
VXZ	Volatility mid term

 

The first 8 are 3x leverage.  The first 6 are based on equities and are all bear funds.  The two Miners are more volatile, and though on a daily basis they offset, over time they may both decline.

 

The last two are technically ETNs, very dangerous but potentially very lucrative.

 

I'll track these for the year.

 

Cleaning up Weekly Positions

Not a great week, but survived to try again.  Closed out three positions, buying back a put spread in $AAPL for a profit and a call spread in $TSLA for a profit.

I also closed out my call spread in $UVXY for a fairly significant loss.  UVXY took off on the morning while I was short calls and I decided to cover them before things got worse.  That didn't work out because the market turned back up (damn dip buyers) and I left a fair amount of money on the table. 

Annoying, but those choices sometimes have to be made in order to protect the account. 

I put on two new trades today, both times selling put spreads on big, volatile and liquid names.

On $CMG sold next week's  $415 strike and bought the $395 for the same time period.  About a $3.40 credit for that.

Same kind of trade on $TSLA, sold next week's 255, bought the $237.50 for a $3.50 credit.  Risky, but both stocks severely dipped at the open today and recovered as the day went along.

I'm considering maybe taking a earlier profit (if I have one) rather than waiting until expiration.  Sean McLaughlin takes his when he hits 50%, but that seems like too little to me. 

Happy trading.

A Tesla Bearish Option Spread and an Update on $UVXY

I was a bit reckless with my option trades today, and surprisingly, I didn't get burned.  I may actually make some money on it. It will probably come back to haunt me.


I sold a call spread on Tesla ($TSLA) with a one day expiration.  The stock came out with earnings last night, and although the stock initially went up, it faded quickly and was down by 10 am or so, when I put this on. 


The stock had dropped from $280 last night down to $260, so I sold a put spread:


Sold the $262.50 for $2.24 for expiration tomorrow.
Bought the $272.50 for $0.55 for the same date. 


If the stock stays below I get the entire spread.  Short duration, but there was still a fair amount of implied volatility, so a decent return. 


Stock dropped to $256 by the close, so I could have taken it off for a solid win, but will hold for a bit tomorrow.  If it stays near that price I will let it expire worthless. 


An update on $UVXY.  If you haven't tried this strategy, one thing that can happen when you sell a call or put is that they can be exercised early.  That happened to me today, the $19 call I sold was bought back, locking in my losses.  Bad. However, $UVXY continued going up, so the exercise stopped me from taking larger losses.  Good!


The $21 call trade I sold isn't looking great either.  The stock closed near $22, and the option expires tomorrow.  I need a solid fade to make any money, and I'm not confident about it. 


That's the risk of doing this.  A few bad trades can really blow up your account.

A Bullish Option Spread on $AAPL

I have a long term put option on Apple, but since I have been watching it closely, I saw that it had been upgraded this morning.  The stock seemed to be steady, so I thought it might be good to put on a very short term bullish spread on.  I had some cash available from my winning $YELP spread that expired on Friday.


I sold a put spread (which is bullish).


Sold the $135 weekly put for this Friday for 40 cents
Bought the $132 strike weekly put also for this Friday for 9 cents.  The underlying stock was trading around $136.20 at the time.


If this works, that is, if $AAPL stays over $135 through close on Friday, I'll pick up the whole 31 cents (that is, $31 per option.)  The stock closed at $136.69, and I am already in the black. 


It's probably not smart to trade such short duration, I don't really have much chance of picking up much of the implied volatility, but it's a straight directional bet that the stock won't go down, or go down very much in a short time frame.


I'd like to update my position on the trades I made last week.  I have two bullish bets on $UVXY, short a $19 call and a $21 call.  The $21 looks OK, $UVXY closed at $20.69, that would pay off if it stays here.  The $19 is losing at this point, but $UVXY can fall quickly, so I will hang on to it for a few days.  Of course, it can also spike, but I have offsetting long calls at higher prices to give me some comfort.


Enjoy trading.

Winning trade in $YELP

Just a quick note to say I allowed the call spread I had on $YELP to expire.  I had sold the 36.50 strike call and the stock closed at $34.67, a nice win for me.

No other trades today. 

Shorting the Spike in $UVXY with a Call Spread

If you read yesterday's post, you saw I made a bearish bet on $UVXY, which is more or less a bullish bet on the market.  I got stung a bit, although it was done with options that don't expire until next Friday.


I was taken to task a bit for not using the correct terminology on $UVXY and the $VIX, to which I will plead no contest.  For my purposes, it's not important to identify the how the products work exactly.  I don't need to understand the physics of gravity to know I will hurt myself if I jump off a building. 


With that out of the way, $UVXY did spike this morning, and rather than wait, I sold another call spread at higher strikes.  Putting on more risk but hoping for a drop as the markets quiet down for the weekend and contango kicks in.


Sold the $21 February 24 Call
Bought the $25 February 24 Call


I got a credit of about a dollar again.  Price of the underlying was $20.80 at the time I put it on.  The price jumped to $22 before closing at $20.11, so I am ahead on this trade at end of day, but behind on the one I made yesterday at the 19 strike.


A word on liquidity.  I closed out a trade today I didn't discuss when I opened it on $RH.  I had sold the 26 strike and for a while I was looking pretty good, as the stock dropped below $25.  I didn't take it off with a win because I couldn't get a good price because the option was illiquid, hardly any bids.  It's teaching me to focus on activity traded options.  Even if I see a very good deal, I may pass if I can't cover when I want to.


As it turns out, $RH got a buy recommendation and the stock jumped over $27.  Lesson learned (hopefully). 


Good luck trading.

A Bearish Spread on $UVXY

I wasn't planning on any trades today, I thought I'd hold some powder back, but an opportunity opened up and I decided to take it.  The $VIX climbed today and along with it, the $UVXY, the 2X Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF.  $UVXY is a function of the $VIX, which is known as the Fear indicator, a measure of volatility.  When the $VIX goes up, it generally means the market is going down, although that wasn't the case today. 


The market has been pretty complacent lately, and despite all the political rumbling, I didn't see anything that was an immediate reason for the spike in the $VIX or $UVXY, so I decided to open a trade against it.


I shorted the $19 March 24 call (next week's) and bought the $24 strike for the same time period. It gave me a net credit of just under a dollar at the time.  $UVXY was trading at $19.50 when I made the trade, up a dollar.  It gives me a week for it to drop back under $19 to get the full credit.  Remember, Monday is a markets holiday, which is calculated into the option price.


The stock traded as high as $20 and closed at $19.80, so I could have done a bit better.  We'll see.  I spoke to someone after the market close who said it was $VIX expiration this morning, and it's not usual for the index to behave oddly at expiration.  Technical mumbo-jumbo. If so, all the better for a pullback.




Good luck 

Closing a Put Spread on $TSLA, opening a short position on $NUGT

I closed out the put spread I sold on $TSLA (Tesla) today.  I had sold a put spread yesterday with a Friday expiration, which is a bullish bet, and the stock jumped from $276 to $283 and it looked like it might pull back.  I had a pretty risky position if it turned against me in such a short time frame, so I closed it out for a debit of $1.1, making close to a $200 profit overnight. 


I'm pretty happy with it, I would prefer to let a winner ride, but seems like the right move to take it off. 


I also closed out a put spread from a week ago that I hadn't posted, so I won't bring that up.  I prefer to only report on trades that I have been upfront with, not claiming a winner just after the fact.


How Option Spreads Work


For those that don't do a lot of trading in options, or spreads, just a comment on what I am doing.  If I sell a put spread, that is actually a bullish bet.  I am selling a higher strike put for more money, and buying a lower price put for less.  It creates a net credit, and if the stock price stays above the higher strike, I keep the entire credit. 


If I sell a call spread, it works that opposite and is a bearish bet.  See below for a real life example.


Selling a Call Spread on $NUGT


Today I sold a call spread in $NUGT, the Direxion 3 times leveraged Gold Miners ETF.


Sell $13 March 17 strike for $1.16
Bought $17 March 17 strike for $0.35


If $NUGT ends up below $13, I keep the 81 cents.  These are regular options, so everything is times 100, then times of the number of options.  Usually I don't say how many that is, but today it was 5, so I have chance to earn $408, while risking more.  The risk is mitigated by the fact that the stock price was $12 when I put this on.  Unfortunately, it went up during the day and closed at $12.46.  Not a good entry.


Because $NUGT is a 3x ETF, I have the chance to see some decay from rebalancing.  Maybe not too much in just a month. 


Enjoy your trading.

Shorting UGAZ and DGAZ

I've posted a few option trades to this blog, but I also made a trade today that was in the original spirit of the blog, because I was able to make it.


The concept is to short BOTH sides of a leveraged 3X ETF pair.  In this case, the Velocity shares Natural Gas ETF $UGAZ and it's inverse $DGAZ.  I shorted both in equal dollar amounts. 


I got $DGAZ at $5.15 and $UGAZ at $20.21 after hours.  No options are available for these, and that's not the type of play I want to make.


If you look at a chair of these paired together, over a long enough period, they both decline.  In the three month chart I ran today, they both have dropped 30% over that time period.  I believe it's the daily rebalancing that causes that, although there may be a more technical reason.  If so, let me know but it's not necessary to know why when it is clearly obvious it does happen consistently.


It's a good strategy but not foolproof. If one side of the pair goes up consistent and too much, it can result in losses.  There's more on that in some older posts. Sometimes it takes many months or years to profit from this strategy. Also, it's not always possible to short these, and the broker can request the shares back at any time.


Anyway, that's the trade.  I have it in a longer term account along with a short position in $UVXY AND $XIV. 


Good luck.

Weekly Put Spread on $TSLA

I sold a put spread on $TSLA today, stock has been a monster, and I think it has a chance to continue to run.  I can't see fighting this trend at this point.  Stock has a ridiculous valuation, but never short a stock based on valuation. 


As I did with $YELP, I used the weekly calls, for a lot of risk and a quick payoff.  I can't recommend this as a good strategy, but it can work. 


Actual trade was short the 275 put and bought the 260 put for just short of a credit of $3 per option on the 2/17/17 when the stock price of around $277.  Closed above $280, so already in the green.


I was surprised, I had originally looked at the 270 strike but would have only sold for $1.35.  Not enough payoff for the risk on this high flyer.  I could have stretched to a longer date, but decided to just cut the cushion.  Either it runs like crazy or it reverses hard, and no amount of cushion will help.


Risky play, but I accept that. 


Only trade I made today, others I have on are still working, including $YELP losing a bit more.


By the way, if you haven't caught Sean McLaughin's options podcast, I recommend it.  You can find the link on his twitter account, @chicagosean

Short Term Call Spread on YELP

On Friday, I put on a call spread on $YELP, sold the 36.50 and bought the 38.50 for a credit of 45 cents, expiring next Friday.  Yelp reported that morning and dropped 5 bucks, I put this trade on when the stock price was $36.  It closed at $35.84.

I mentioned  this to Sean McLaughlin, host of the Gimme Some Options podcast, who called a one week play "bold."  That gave me something to think about.

Many of this trades, and some of mine, are for longer duration,  where the goal is to pick up premium as the the implied volatility peters out over the life of the option.  I have no problems with this, it's a solid strategy. 

Making a trade on a short dated option is different.  The plan on my Yelp trade is mostly directional.  I think Yelp is going to sit here or continue to slide over the next week.  If so, I get the whole premium.  I gave myself a little cushion by going with the $36.50, and probably  cost myself a dime or two. If I'm wrong, it could ugly, but will be over fast.

We will see how it works out.

Update on Tesoro Call Spread

A few days ago I sold a weekly call spread on $TSRO based on the idea it had run too much and was due to fall back in short order.  I bought a 195 call and sold the 185 for this week.  I netted $2 and if the stock stayed under $185 I would keep the whole spread.

Unfortunately, after I put it on, Tesaro went up a bit more and hovered around the $185 mark.  If it shot up to $195 I would be out $1,000 per option.  Or an $800 loss. 

I prefer to close out early if there is any question but couldn't do it because the option wasn't very liquid.  I decided to wait it out this morning and decided to put in a limit order, buying back the $185 strike for a dollar.  I was on the road and couldn't watch the position closely.

The stock dropped almost immediately this morning and held just under $185 for most of the morning, and around 11 my limit order filled, giving me a good profit of $100 per option less commissions.

As it turned out, the stock closed at $182. If I held all day I would have gotten the entire $2.  OK, a win is a win and l'll take it.  It could have been a loss, so I'm happy.

One thing I re-learned is that it's better to trade options that are more liquid.  There are times you just need to end the trade early.

A Put Spread on Chipotle $CMG

I am a little late posting this, and I feel bad because it has been a winner so far, but well, that's the way it is.  A few days ago I sold a put spread on Chipotle, $CMG.  I sold the $395 and bought the $375, both in May, for a possible $800 gain.  Price when I took out the spread was around $398.


A few keys points:


May is really far out for me.  This has a long time to work.  I got the idea from Jim Cramer, he said he thought Chipotle would come back from the dietary issues they had, but it would take 18 months.  We are now a year past that, so six more months would be around 18.  I figure there is some leeway in that so I chose May. (And honestly, Cramer doesn't know, he may be better at estimating that stuff than some people, or maybe not)


The other thing I was instead of multiple puts at close strike prices, I did one with a wide spread.  This gave me a decent return (40%) and lowered commissions.  Risk is pretty high, but not so much I didn't take the wager.


So, just two days out of 60 or so $CMG is up 20 bucks.  A lucky run.  I am already up $150 or so.  I don't think it's likely I will wait it out if I keep this profit.  Although I haven't yet.


I have a couple more positions I'll get to over the next week.  A teaser is that one involves $LABU.

A short term Option Call Spread on $TSRO

In my last post, I discussed why it's better to use a long time frame when selling option spreads. In this point, I am going to show why I ignored that advice.


I sold a call spread on $TSRO today, selling this week's $185 for $3.47 and buying the $195 for $1.47, a $200 spread per option contract.  As usual when selling the spread, a pretty bad risk/reward ratio, 5 to 1 against.  If the stock goes to $195, I loss the entire amount.  Dumb, maybe.


Well, that's why the call it risk.  Yes, it's a potential loss, but a defined one, pretty much.  Is $TSRO going to $195?  It already jumped $20 today to $182 (it was $183 when I put the trade on.) 


The positive is that it doesn't have much time to go up.  The $20 jump today can be traced to a takeover rumor.  We will see if it has legs.  My play is that it doesn't and drops, or at least holds steady through Friday, two days away.  If I get a drop tomorrow, I'll close it early.


Probably more to discuss on this, but I want to get this posted, and chances are no one will read it anyone.