Leveraged Update February 23

I haven't posted in a while, I wanted to let this run without thinking about it, especially considering the big drop and increased volatility in the stock market. 

WOW.  As of this date I am just about doubling the return on the SPY.  What's incredible is that the two VIX related products have exploded (I hold all these short) and really pounded my returns.  But the other ETFs I hold short have offset that the VXX.  Possibly the increase in volatility has helped them, that's how I think it's supposed to work.  This is supposed to be a six month strategy, so no change as of now.

Here is where I am:

		Price on			Price on
		12/31/2017	Beg Short	Shares	2/23/2018	End Value
FAZ	financials	11.69	-1000	(85.54)	10.53	-900.77
TZA	Small Cap	12.27	-1000	(81.50)	11.68	-951.92
SPXS	SP 500	29.96	-1000	(33.38)	26.81	-894.86
SOXS	Semiconductors	16.5	-1000	(60.61)	12.11	-733.94
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech	21.51	-1000	(46.49)	16.46	-765.23
YANG	China	5.93	-1000	(168.63)	4.41	-743.68
JDST	Junior miners Bear	51.31	-1000	(19.49)	57.49	-1120.44
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull	17.76	-1000	(56.31)	13.62	-766.89
VXX	Volatility short term	27.92	-1000	(35.82)	40.41	-1447.35
VXZ	Volatility mid term	17.5	-1000	(57.14)	19.82	-1132.57
			-10000			-9457.64
Cash at start			10000			10000.00
Profit			0			542.36
Percent						5.42%
SPY		266.86			274.71	2.94%

A Down Day in the Market

Finally, a down day in the market.  Actually, not even down that much, some bigger weakness in the NASDAQ and the Vix climbed quite a bit, although it tailed off later in the day.

I'm not posting my results, but it's easy to calculate, and I will post them in a day or two, but I am sure I am down a bit just because of the VXX.  It doesn't matter since I want this to be something I hold for a long time.  I would do all year, but I am not sure what's going to happen it things go really well.  I'll update that thought later.

For now, let's talk about volatility.  The greater than volatility, the more these leveraged ETFs lose money.  Yes, as Bear ETFs mostly, I stand to make more money if the market goes straight up.  But since that isn't likely to happen, an increase in volatility (with an overall trend up) is going to help me beat the overall market.

Stay tuned.

14 Percent Gain So Far in 2018

		12/31/2017	1000 each	Shares	1/23/2018	Value
FAZ	financials	11.69	-1000	-85.5432	10.03	-858.00
TZA	Small Cap	12.27	-1000	-81.49959	10.6	-863.90
SPXS	SP 500	29.96	-1000	-33.37784	25.09	-837.45
SOXS	Semiconductors	16.5	-1000	-60.60606	11.88	-720.00
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech	21.51	-1000	-46.49	16.65	-774.06
YANG	China	5.93	-1000	-168.6341	3.85	-649.24
JDST	Junior miners Bear	51.31	-1000	-19.48938	46.38	-903.92
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull	17.76	-1000	-56.30631	18.86	-1061.94
VXX	Volatility short term	27.92	-1000	-35.81662	26.69	-955.95
VXZ	Volatility mid term	17.5	-1000	-57.14286	16.96	-969.14
			-10000			-8593.59
Cash at start			10000			10000.00
Profit			0			1406.41
Percent						14.06%

The market continues to roar forward, all time highs again, so a bullish strategy is going to work pretty much regardless.  Still, 14% gain is pretty good, the $SPY is around 6%. Surprising that the Vix products are actually underperforming.  

So far, so good.  I am actually waiting for a bad day to pick apart the strategy.  If there is ever one. 

Leveraged Short List dated January 18

Another good week, market was strong, even with a few down days.  SQQQ and SOXS were down a lot, but volatility was up.  That's a bit strange, but strange things do happen over short time periods.  Note JDST and JNUG again this week, both are down since the beginning of the year.  A very good situation for a short fund. 

stocks 2018
		12/31/2017	1000 each	Shares	1/18/2018	Value
FAZ	financials	11.69	-1000	-85.5432	10.59	-905.90
TZA	Small Cap	12.27	-1000	-81.49959	11.31	-921.76
SPXS	SP 500	29.96	-1000	-33.37784	26.2	-874.50
SOXS	Semiconductors	16.5	-1000	-60.60606	12.46	-755.15
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech	21.51	-1000	-46.49	17.79	-827.06
YANG	China	5.93	-1000	-168.6341	4.32	-728.50
JDST	Junior miners Bear	51.31	-1000	-19.48938	49.56	-965.89
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull	17.76	-1000	-56.30631	17.72	-997.75
VXX	Volatility short term	27.92	-1000	-35.81662	26.96	-965.62
VXZ	Volatility mid term	17.5	-1000	-57.14286	16.91	-966.29
			-10000			-8908.41
Cash at start			10000			10000.00
Profit			0			1091.59
Percent						10.92%

Update to the ETF Leveraged Short List for January 11

The stock market has really been on a roll, and the performance of the ETF Short List has been flying along with it.  A remarkable jump of 3.7% for the first seven trading days on 2018 in the SP 500 has resulted in a gain of 8.47% for this list. Awesome.

One thing I am really happy about is the performance of the Junior Miners pair, where I own both the Bull and Bear ETF.  Very volatile, and as such, I am up 1% in a week with very little risk.  There is a great deal more risk playing just the Bull side, but no complaints in this market.

See the results below:

stocks 2018
		12/31/2017	1000 each	Shares	1/11/2018	Value
FAZ	financials	11.69	-1000	-85.5432	10.9	-932.42
TZA	Small Cap	12.27	-1000	-81.49959	11.12	-906.28
SPXS	SP 500	29.96	-1000	-33.37784	27.09	-904.21
SOXS	Semiconductors	16.5	-1000	-60.60606	14.19	-860.00
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech	21.51	-1000	-46.49	18.64	-866.57
YANG	China	5.93	-1000	-168.6341	4.93	-831.37
JDST	Junior miners Bear	51.31	-1000	-19.48938	51.52	-1004.09
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull	17.76	-1000	-56.30631	17.34	-976.35
VXX	Volatility short term	27.92	-1000	-35.81662	25.84	-925.50
VXZ	Volatility mid term	17.5	-1000	-57.14286	16.55	-945.71
			-10000			-9152.50
Cash at start			10000			10000.00
Profit			0			847.50
Percent						8.47%

2018 Update on the Leveraged Short List

The first three days of 2018 were a great time to be a stock market bull.  Almost everything went up, and the ETFs in the Short List went up more than anything.  Not really a fair test, because things will change, and there will be some down days.  I don't know when, but I hope to be ready for them.  A good start sure helps.

stocks 2018
		12/31/2017	1000 each	Shares	1/4/2018	Value
FAZ	financials	11.69	-1000	-85.5432	11.44	-978.614
TZA	Small Cap	12.27	-1000	-81.49959	11.77	-959.25
SPXS	SP 500	29.96	-1000	-33.37784	28.39	-947.597
SOXS	Semiconductors	16.5	-1000	-60.60606	14.13	-856.364
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech	21.51	-1000	-46.49	19.58	-910.274
YANG	China	5.93	-1000	-168.6341	5.11	-861.72
JDST	Junior miners Bear	51.31	-1000	-19.48938	48.5	-945.235
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull	17.76	-1000	-56.30631	18.54	-1043.92
VXX	Volatility short term	27.92	-1000	-35.81662	26.25	-940.186
VXZ	Volatility mid term	17.5	-1000	-57.14286	17.04	-973.714
			-10000			-9416.87
Cash at start			10000			10000
Profit			0			583.1265
Percent						5.83%

2018 Short LIst - Leveraged ETFs to short

This year, I will pick my investments for 2018. I have positions in most of these going into the year. 

 

These are all short positions on leveraged ETFs.  Shorts make money when they decline in price, and leveraged ETFs are built to fail due to daily rebalancing.  I have chosen these because they are available to short at various times, or you can buy put options on them (put options do have negatives, they are timed, and decline in value as they as approach expiration).

 

The list

 

 

FAZ	financials
TZA	Small Cap
SPXS	SP 500
SOXS	Semiconductors
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech
YANG	China
JDST	Junior miners Bear
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull
VXX	Volatility short term
VXZ	Volatility mid term

 

The first 8 are 3x leverage.  The first 6 are based on equities and are all bear funds.  The two Miners are more volatile, and though on a daily basis they offset, over time they may both decline.

 

The last two are technically ETNs, very dangerous but potentially very lucrative.

 

I'll track these for the year.