2018 Short LIst - Leveraged ETFs to short

This year, I will pick my investments for 2018. I have positions in most of these going into the year. 

 

These are all short positions on leveraged ETFs.  Shorts make money when they decline in price, and leveraged ETFs are built to fail due to daily rebalancing.  I have chosen these because they are available to short at various times, or you can buy put options on them (put options do have negatives, they are timed, and decline in value as they as approach expiration).

 

The list

 

 

FAZ	financials
TZA	Small Cap
SPXS	SP 500
SOXS	Semiconductors
SQQQ	Large Cap Tech
YANG	China
JDST	Junior miners Bear
JNUG	Junior Miners Bull
VXX	Volatility short term
VXZ	Volatility mid term

 

The first 8 are 3x leverage.  The first 6 are based on equities and are all bear funds.  The two Miners are more volatile, and though on a daily basis they offset, over time they may both decline.

 

The last two are technically ETNs, very dangerous but potentially very lucrative.

 

I'll track these for the year.

 

Cleaning up Weekly Positions

Not a great week, but survived to try again.  Closed out three positions, buying back a put spread in $AAPL for a profit and a call spread in $TSLA for a profit.

I also closed out my call spread in $UVXY for a fairly significant loss.  UVXY took off on the morning while I was short calls and I decided to cover them before things got worse.  That didn't work out because the market turned back up (damn dip buyers) and I left a fair amount of money on the table. 

Annoying, but those choices sometimes have to be made in order to protect the account. 

I put on two new trades today, both times selling put spreads on big, volatile and liquid names.

On $CMG sold next week's  $415 strike and bought the $395 for the same time period.  About a $3.40 credit for that.

Same kind of trade on $TSLA, sold next week's 255, bought the $237.50 for a $3.50 credit.  Risky, but both stocks severely dipped at the open today and recovered as the day went along.

I'm considering maybe taking a earlier profit (if I have one) rather than waiting until expiration.  Sean McLaughlin takes his when he hits 50%, but that seems like too little to me. 

Happy trading.

A Tesla Bearish Option Spread and an Update on $UVXY

I was a bit reckless with my option trades today, and surprisingly, I didn't get burned.  I may actually make some money on it. It will probably come back to haunt me.


I sold a call spread on Tesla ($TSLA) with a one day expiration.  The stock came out with earnings last night, and although the stock initially went up, it faded quickly and was down by 10 am or so, when I put this on. 


The stock had dropped from $280 last night down to $260, so I sold a put spread:


Sold the $262.50 for $2.24 for expiration tomorrow.
Bought the $272.50 for $0.55 for the same date. 


If the stock stays below I get the entire spread.  Short duration, but there was still a fair amount of implied volatility, so a decent return. 


Stock dropped to $256 by the close, so I could have taken it off for a solid win, but will hold for a bit tomorrow.  If it stays near that price I will let it expire worthless. 


An update on $UVXY.  If you haven't tried this strategy, one thing that can happen when you sell a call or put is that they can be exercised early.  That happened to me today, the $19 call I sold was bought back, locking in my losses.  Bad. However, $UVXY continued going up, so the exercise stopped me from taking larger losses.  Good!


The $21 call trade I sold isn't looking great either.  The stock closed near $22, and the option expires tomorrow.  I need a solid fade to make any money, and I'm not confident about it. 


That's the risk of doing this.  A few bad trades can really blow up your account.

A Bullish Option Spread on $AAPL

I have a long term put option on Apple, but since I have been watching it closely, I saw that it had been upgraded this morning.  The stock seemed to be steady, so I thought it might be good to put on a very short term bullish spread on.  I had some cash available from my winning $YELP spread that expired on Friday.


I sold a put spread (which is bullish).


Sold the $135 weekly put for this Friday for 40 cents
Bought the $132 strike weekly put also for this Friday for 9 cents.  The underlying stock was trading around $136.20 at the time.


If this works, that is, if $AAPL stays over $135 through close on Friday, I'll pick up the whole 31 cents (that is, $31 per option.)  The stock closed at $136.69, and I am already in the black. 


It's probably not smart to trade such short duration, I don't really have much chance of picking up much of the implied volatility, but it's a straight directional bet that the stock won't go down, or go down very much in a short time frame.


I'd like to update my position on the trades I made last week.  I have two bullish bets on $UVXY, short a $19 call and a $21 call.  The $21 looks OK, $UVXY closed at $20.69, that would pay off if it stays here.  The $19 is losing at this point, but $UVXY can fall quickly, so I will hang on to it for a few days.  Of course, it can also spike, but I have offsetting long calls at higher prices to give me some comfort.


Enjoy trading.

Winning trade in $YELP

Just a quick note to say I allowed the call spread I had on $YELP to expire.  I had sold the 36.50 strike call and the stock closed at $34.67, a nice win for me.

No other trades today. 

Shorting the Spike in $UVXY with a Call Spread

If you read yesterday's post, you saw I made a bearish bet on $UVXY, which is more or less a bullish bet on the market.  I got stung a bit, although it was done with options that don't expire until next Friday.


I was taken to task a bit for not using the correct terminology on $UVXY and the $VIX, to which I will plead no contest.  For my purposes, it's not important to identify the how the products work exactly.  I don't need to understand the physics of gravity to know I will hurt myself if I jump off a building. 


With that out of the way, $UVXY did spike this morning, and rather than wait, I sold another call spread at higher strikes.  Putting on more risk but hoping for a drop as the markets quiet down for the weekend and contango kicks in.


Sold the $21 February 24 Call
Bought the $25 February 24 Call


I got a credit of about a dollar again.  Price of the underlying was $20.80 at the time I put it on.  The price jumped to $22 before closing at $20.11, so I am ahead on this trade at end of day, but behind on the one I made yesterday at the 19 strike.


A word on liquidity.  I closed out a trade today I didn't discuss when I opened it on $RH.  I had sold the 26 strike and for a while I was looking pretty good, as the stock dropped below $25.  I didn't take it off with a win because I couldn't get a good price because the option was illiquid, hardly any bids.  It's teaching me to focus on activity traded options.  Even if I see a very good deal, I may pass if I can't cover when I want to.


As it turns out, $RH got a buy recommendation and the stock jumped over $27.  Lesson learned (hopefully). 


Good luck trading.

A Bearish Spread on $UVXY

I wasn't planning on any trades today, I thought I'd hold some powder back, but an opportunity opened up and I decided to take it.  The $VIX climbed today and along with it, the $UVXY, the 2X Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF.  $UVXY is a function of the $VIX, which is known as the Fear indicator, a measure of volatility.  When the $VIX goes up, it generally means the market is going down, although that wasn't the case today. 


The market has been pretty complacent lately, and despite all the political rumbling, I didn't see anything that was an immediate reason for the spike in the $VIX or $UVXY, so I decided to open a trade against it.


I shorted the $19 March 24 call (next week's) and bought the $24 strike for the same time period. It gave me a net credit of just under a dollar at the time.  $UVXY was trading at $19.50 when I made the trade, up a dollar.  It gives me a week for it to drop back under $19 to get the full credit.  Remember, Monday is a markets holiday, which is calculated into the option price.


The stock traded as high as $20 and closed at $19.80, so I could have done a bit better.  We'll see.  I spoke to someone after the market close who said it was $VIX expiration this morning, and it's not usual for the index to behave oddly at expiration.  Technical mumbo-jumbo. If so, all the better for a pullback.




Good luck